Summary
High activity level
The activity level on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) is high. Oil production in 2025 was the highest since 2009, and investments for 2026 are estimated at approximately NOK 230 billion. The high level of investment reflects strong confidence in the resource base and future profitability.
Resources for long-term production
The total expected remaining resources are estimated at approximately 7 billion standard cubic metres of oil equivalent. Around half of these have not yet been discovered.
This provides a basis for production, exports and value creation for society for a long time to come.
But this type of progress does not happen by itself. Production is expected to remain high until the end of the 2020s and then decline. To halt the decline, more exploration is needed, both in well-explored areas and in underexplored areas.
In addition, more investments must be made in fields, discoveries, infrastructure and technology development. A lack of investment will lead to a rapid dismantling of the petroleum industry.
Oil and gas up to 2050
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has prepared three scenarios for the total production of oil and gas up to 2050. All three scenarios depict a decline in production, but how quickly this happens depends on exploration activity, willingness to invest and technology development, inter alia.
The scenarios describe a wide range of opportunities for developments in production up to 2050. In High, robust exploration activity, more discoveries and rapid technology development help to maintain a high production level, at approximately 65 per cent of today's level in 2050.
In Low, a reduced willingness to invest and limited exploration activity result in rapid downsizing of operations, with production dwindling to approximately 5 per cent of today's level in 2050.
The difference in net present value between the High and Low scenarios is estimated at around NOK 3 200 billion based on the same oil and gas price. Based on a high price in High and a low price in Low, the corresponding difference is NOK 8 300 billion.
Plenty left to discover
To secure sufficient resources to maintain activity and production over time, more exploration is needed, both close to existing infrastructure and in less explored areas.
Exploration close to fields yields good returns and many discoveries, but the discoveries are generally small and result in limited resource growth.
More exploration is required in underexplored areas, where the potential for large discoveries is greatest to avoid a rapid decline in production.
Profitable exploration
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate has analysed exploration activities in the period 2000–2025. The analysis shows that oil and gas exploration on the NCS has been extremely profitable.
Of approximately 730 exploration wells drilled during this period, 370 were classified as discoveries. The net present value from exploration activities is estimated at close to NOK 4,000 billion.
Every krone invested in exploration has on average returned NOK 4. Exploration is profitable in all sea areas on the shelf.
Improved recovery from the fields
Whilst the NCS already has an average recovery rate of about 50 per cent, various measures can extend the lifetime of the fields and increase resource utilisation. In 2025, the companies submitted around 145 specific projects for improved recovery, corresponding to an estimated 280 million scm of oil equivalent.
These include the drilling of more production wells, low-pressure production, late-phase production, as well as injection and advanced methods.
The drilling of new production wells is the single most important measure. In 2025, more than 60 per cent of oil production came from wells drilled post- 2020.
Advanced methods for improved recovery (EOGR) have great technical potential but are being downgraded by the industry due to technical uncertainty, strict profitability requirements and regulatory barriers. The window of opportunity to realize this potential is limited, and as the infrastructure is decommissioned, so too the opportunities disappear.
Many discoveries have not yet been developed
The discovery portfolio on the NCS currently consists of over 90 discoveries with a total over 500 million scm oe in contingent resources. The overall picture is one of many small discoveries dependent on infrastructure with spare capacity in order to be developed.
Since the discoveries are small, profitable development largely requires tie-back to existing infrastructure, either as subsea developments or as wells from existing facilities. This in turn requires collaboration and good area solutions.
The lead time from discovery to production start-up is currently long. The industry is actively working to reduce lead times. Shorter lead times may allow more discoveries to be profitably developed.
Increased gas export capacity from the Barents Sea
The High North has the largest remaining resource potential on the NCS. Large areas of the Barents Sea are still underexplored, and significant areas have not been opened for petroleum activities.
Without increased gas export capacity, large portions of the resources in the Barents Sea may remain unexploited, and exploration will remain unattractive to the companies.
Hammerfest LNG at Melkøya is currently the only facility for gas export from the Barents Sea and is fully utilised by the Snøhvit field.
Increased gas export capacity can speed up production from existing fields and discoveries by up to 20-30 years and pave the way for new discoveries earlier than with current capacity. This in turn may increase exploration activity in the least explored areas of the Barents Sea.
A more concentrated player landscape
The number of companies on the NCS has more than halved since 2013. Large international companies have pulled out, and the development of new projects on the shelf is now largely dominated by Norwegian-based companies such as Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi.
A more concentrated player landscape can diminish both the geoscientific diversity of ideas and the competition for attractive acreage, which has historically been crucial for large discoveries.
Updated: 9/8/2026