In-person: Making good decisions under subsurface uncertainty: How difficult can it be?
The FORCE IRM group invite you to this 2-day-seminar on 6-7 February 2024. It aims to gather subsurface practitioners for open discussions on uncertainty and its implementation in our industry.
| Date | Time | Duration | Register by | Location |
| 6-7 Feb 2024 | 09:00 | 2 Days | 31 Jan 2024 | Valhall - Havtil |
Are we good enough at estimating subsurface uncertainty and at incorporating it when making decisions? What should we be doing to improve? Are we enabling decision makers to make good decisions?
The seminar is structured around 4 main themes:
- Biases, their effect and how to mitigate for these when making estimates / building models / making forecasts / creating decision support material
- Communicating uncertainty: Good practices and use cases
- Improving predictions
- Making Decisions under Uncertainty
Program:
| DAY1 | Host: | Silje |
| 08:30 | 00:30 | coffee | ||||
| 09:00 | 00:05 | Welcome | Organising Committee | |||
| 09:05 | 00:25 | Introduction | Torgeir Stordal | Norwegian Offshore Directorate | ||
| 09:30 | 01:00 | talk | biases | Bias and Uncertainty | Marc Bond | Rose Subsurface Consultants |
| 10:30 | 00:15 | coffee | ||||
| 10:45 | 00:30 | talk | biases | Looking Back! | Chris Townsend | Orec/UiS |
| 11:15 | 00:30 | talk | biases | Property modelling, how much of it do you really need? | Daniel Berge Sollien | Equinor |
| 11:45 | 00:30 | discussion | Bjørn Egil | |||
| 12:15 | 00:45 | lunch | ||||
| 13:00 | 00:45 | talk | communication | Can geologists and statisticians communicate? Generative models as a tool supporting communication, elicitation and learning. | Dan Cornford | IGI Ltd |
| 13:45 | 00:30 | talk | communication | Empowering End Users to Interpret and Utilize Uncertainty in Subsurface Modeling | Martha Stunell | Landmark-Reservoir Centre of Excellence |
| 14:15 | 00:15 | coffee | ||||
| 14:30 | 01:00 | talk | communication | Damned if you do -Damned if you don't | Emma Schiro | Statistics Norway |
| 15:30 | 00:30 | discussion | Per Olav | |||
| 16:00 | ||||||
| Day 2 | Host: | Bjørn Egil | ||||
| 08:30 | 00:30 | coffee | ||||
| 09:00 | 00:30 | Summary Day 1 + Ensemble data Sharing | Sophie Haseldonckx | Norwegian Offshore Directorate | ||
| 09:30 | 01:00 | talk | improve predictions | Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy: Strategies for Overcoming Cognitive and Motivational Biases | Reidar Bratvold | UiS |
| 10:30 | 00:15 | coffee | ||||
| 10:45 | 00:30 | talk | improve predictions | Exploration performance tracking in Equinor | Kjersti Breirem Neumann | Equinor |
| 11:15 | 00:30 | talk | improve predictions | Estimating leakage risk through legacy wells in a CO2 storage site | Alejandro Bello Palacios | Equinor |
| 11:45 | 00:30 | discussion | improve predictions | Chris/Sophie | ||
| 12:15 | 01:00 | lunch | ||||
| 13:15 | 00:30 | talk | Decisions | Precision in Uncertainty: Hod Field's Approach to Subsurface Decision-Making | Johanna Sastre | AkerBP |
| 13:45 | 00:30 | talk | Decisions | Data assimilation for improved decision making – Maria Phase 2 | Vedad Hadziavdic | WinterhallDea |
| 14:15 | 00:15 | coffee | ||||
| 14:30 | 00:30 | talk | Decisions | Integrating Res Model Ensembles with Network Models | Stian Håland | AkerBP |
| 15:00 | 00:30 | talk | Decisions | Predicting Formation Tops with Machine Learning using multiple data types and model ensembles | Petter Dischington & Eirik Larsen | NOD / Earth Science Analytics |
| 15:30 | 00:30 | discussion | + Sum-up & Close | Sophie |
Day1- 18:30- Dinner at SUMO Hall Toll
Organizing Committee:
- Chris Townsend (Orec/UiS)
- Per Olav Eide Svendsen (Equinor)
- Silje Skarpeid (Shell)
- Bjørn Egil Ludvigsen (Aker BP)
- Sophie Haseldonckx (NOD)
FORCE seminars have previously been fully booked with waiting lists so you are encouraged to sign up as soon as you know you will attend.
Participation fees:
FORCE members: NOK 1500,-
Non-members: NOK 3000,-
University/Students: NOK 500,-
Important information:
You can register as a FORCE member and pay "FORCE member" price if you are an employee of a member company.
All FORCE member companies are listed here.
Payment is made online by credit card or VIPPS. Please note that no refunds will be given after you have signed up.
If you for any reason cannot attend the workshop, you are welcome to send a representative, just inform Linn Smerud as soon as there are changes.
If you need to cancel your registration, please use the confirmation e-mail you received when you signed up.
If the seminar/webinar is cancelled, your payment will be refunded.
For other questions, please contact Linn Smerud or Tone Mydland.
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate org.no: 870917732
Updated: 21/02/2024