In-person: Making good decisions under subsurface uncertainty: How difficult can it be?


The FORCE IRM group invite you to this 2-day-seminar on 6-7 February 2024. It aims to gather subsurface practitioners for open discussions on uncertainty and its implementation in our industry.

Date Time Duration Register by Location
6-7 Feb 2024 09:00 2 Days 31 Jan 2024 Valhall - Havtil


Are we good enough at estimating subsurface uncertainty and at incorporating it when making decisions? What should we be doing to improve? Are we enabling decision makers to make good decisions?

The seminar is structured around 4 main themes:

  • Biases, their effect and how to mitigate for these when making estimates / building models / making forecasts / creating decision support material
  • Communicating uncertainty: Good practices and use cases
  • Improving predictions
  • Making Decisions under Uncertainty


DAY1       Host: Silje  
08:30 00:30 coffee        
09:00 00:05     Welcome Organising Committee  
09:05 00:25     Introduction Torgeir Stordal Norwegian Offshore Directorate
09:30 01:00 talk biases Bias and Uncertainty Marc Bond Rose Subsurface Consultants
10:30 00:15 coffee        
10:45 00:30 talk biases Looking Back! Chris Townsend Orec/UiS
11:15 00:30 talk biases Property modelling, how much of it do you really need? Daniel Berge Sollien Equinor
11:45 00:30 discussion     Bjørn Egil  
12:15 00:45 lunch        
13:00 00:45 talk communication Can geologists and statisticians communicate? Generative models as a tool supporting communication, elicitation and learning. Dan Cornford IGI Ltd
13:45 00:30 talk communication Empowering End Users to Interpret and Utilize Uncertainty in Subsurface Modeling Martha Stunell Landmark-Reservoir Centre of Excellence 
14:15 00:15 coffee        
14:30 01:00 talk communication Damned if you do -Damned if you don't Emma Schiro Statistics Norway
15:30 00:30 discussion     Per Olav  
Day 2       Host: Bjørn Egil  
08:30 00:30 coffee        
09:00 00:30     Summary Day 1 + Ensemble data Sharing Sophie Haseldonckx Norwegian Offshore Directorate
09:30 01:00 talk improve predictions Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy: Strategies for Overcoming Cognitive and Motivational Biases Reidar Bratvold UiS
10:30 00:15 coffee        
10:45 00:30 talk improve predictions Exploration performance tracking in Equinor Kjersti Breirem Neumann Equinor
11:15 00:30 talk improve predictions Estimating leakage risk through legacy wells in a CO2 storage site Alejandro Bello Palacios  Equinor
11:45 00:30 discussion improve predictions   Chris/Sophie  
12:15 01:00 lunch        
13:15 00:30 talk Decisions Precision in Uncertainty: Hod Field's Approach to Subsurface Decision-Making Johanna Sastre AkerBP
13:45 00:30 talk Decisions Data assimilation for improved decision making – Maria Phase 2 Vedad Hadziavdic WinterhallDea
14:15 00:15 coffee        
14:30 00:30 talk Decisions Integrating Res Model Ensembles with Network Models  Stian Håland AkerBP
15:00 00:30 talk Decisions Predicting Formation Tops with Machine Learning using multiple data types and model ensembles Petter Dischington & Eirik Larsen NOD / Earth Science Analytics
15:30 00:30 discussion + Sum-up & Close   Sophie  


Day1- 18:30- Dinner at SUMO Hall Toll 


Organizing Committee:

  • Chris Townsend (Orec/UiS)
  • Per Olav Eide Svendsen (Equinor)
  • Silje Skarpeid (Shell)
  • Bjørn Egil Ludvigsen (Aker BP)
  • Sophie Haseldonckx (NOD)

FORCE seminars have previously been fully booked with waiting lists so you are encouraged to sign up as soon as you know you will attend.

Participation fees:
FORCE members: NOK 1500,-
Non-members: NOK 3000,-
University/Students: NOK 500,-


Important information:

You can register as a FORCE member and pay "FORCE member" price if you are an employee of a member company.
All FORCE member companies are listed here.

Payment is made online by credit card or VIPPS. Please note that no refunds will be given after you have signed up.
If you for any reason cannot attend the workshop, you are welcome to send a representative, just inform Linn Smerud as soon as there are changes. 

If you need to cancel your registration, please use the confirmation e-mail you received when you signed up.

If the seminar/webinar is cancelled, your payment will be refunded. 

For other questions, please contact Linn Smerud or Tone Mydland.


Norwegian Petroleum Directorate org.no: 870917732

Updated: 21/02/2024

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