Petroleum production
15/01/2014 A total of 213.7 million saleable standard cubic metres of oil equivalents (Sm³ o.e.) was produced in 2013. This is 49.8 million Sm³ o.e. less than in the record year 2004, and 4.9 per cent less than in 2012. The decline was as expected after the record high gas sales level in 2012. Oil production continued to decline.
Total production of petroleum in 2014 is estimated at 215 million Sm³ o.e, about one-half per cent higher than in 2013, but is subsequently expected to increase slowly.
During the five-year period 2009-2013, production totalled 1127 million Sm³ o.e. As for the fiveyear period up to 2018, production is expected to be 1094 million Sm³ o.e.
Figure 1. Actual and forecast sale of petroleum 1971-2018.
Gas
In 2013, 108.7 billion Sm³ of gas was sold (107.2 billion Sm3 40 megajoules of gas). This is a reduction of nearly six billion Sm3 from 2012 (five per cent). The decline was somewhat less than expected, and sales ended 0.7 billion Sm³ (0.6 per cent) higher than forecast.
The forecast in figure 2 shows a stable production level, followed by a return to a gradual increase in gas production.
Figure 2. Actual and forecast gas sales through 2018.
Oil
Oil production in 2013 amounted to 84.9 million Sm³ (1.46 million bbls per day), compared with 89.2 million Sm3 (1.53 million bbls per day) the previous year. 72 fields contributed to the oil production in 2013, in addition to test production from one discovery.
Last year’s oil production was 0.6 per cent lower than the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s autumn 2012 estimate. Production fell by slightly less than five per cent from 2012 to 2013, but the decline is somewhat less than in recent years.
The NPD prepares forecasts with an 80 per cent confidence interval. This means that there is a 10 per cent likelihood that production will be lower than the low estimate and a 10 per cent likelihood that production will be higher than the high estimate.
For 2014, the NPD estimates that the decline in oil production will stop, and we expect a small increase to 85.5 million Sm³ (1.47 million bbls per day). Current expectations are for relatively stable oil production in the next few years. The estimated uncertainty in 2014 is +18/-18 per cent. The uncertainty is particularly linked to the reservoirs’ ability to deliver, drilling of new production wells, start-up of new fields and regularity of the fields in operation.
Figure 3. Uncertainty in future oil production.
For 2014, production of condensate and NGL is forecast at volumes of 3.2 million Sm³ and 9.9 million tonnes, respectively. Total liquid production is therefore estimated at 108 million Sm3 o.e. (1.85 million bbls o.e. per day).
The table below shows the production forecast divided by the various products for the next five years.
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
Olje / Oil
|
85.5 |
86.5 |
86.7 |
87.0 |
85.9 |
NGL / NGL
|
18.9 |
19.4 |
19.9 |
19.4 |
19.6 |
Kondensat /
|
3.2 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
Væske / Liquid
|
107.6 |
108.8 |
109.3 |
109.3 |
109.1 |
Væske / Liquid
|
1.85 |
1.87 |
1.88 |
1.88 |
1.88 |
Gass / Gas
|
107.0 |
106.3 |
107.7 |
113.3 |
115.8 |
Estimated oil production is expected to reach 432 million Sm³ in the period 2014-2018, which is 59 million Sm³ less than in the previous five-year period. The oil production is expected to come from fields in operation or from fields approved for development. This includes improved oil recovery measures on these same fields. Production that has been approved accounts for 91 per cent of the volume in the five-year period.
Figure 4. Oil production 2009-2018 distributed by maturity.
Updated: 15/01/2014