Arendalsuka 2026: Where can you meet the Norwegian Offshore Directorate?

Production on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) will remain high as we move toward the end of the 2020s, after which it is expected to decline.

The resources on the NCS can be further developed thanks to many of the fundamental factors that have characterised the industry since the very start: knowledge, technology, a willingness to invest – and the courage to seek out new opportunities.

The Report shows that the NCS can still generate considerable values, but also that there is a wide range of outcomes for developments leading up to 2050.

Exploration pays off – and yields tomorrow's production

The remaining resources are estimated at about 7 billion standard cubic metres of oil equivalent. In comparison, about 9 billion have been produced and delivered to date.

About half of the remaining resources have yet to be discovered, which is why exploration is crucial for long-term production and value creation.

Exploration on the NCS is profitable in all ocean areas. Over the last 25 years, each and every NOK invested in exploration has yielded a return of NOK 4.

Discoveries must come on stream quicker

There are more than 90 discoveries on the shelf lacking a development decision.

Many discoveries are minor and need to be tied back to existing infrastructure in order to be profitable. In other words, a shorter timeframe from discovery to production can help ensure that more resources are extracted.

Wide range of potential outcomes in 2050

The Resource Report reflects three scenarios for production leading up to 2050. All three show a decline over time, but the pace and scope vary significantly.

In a high scenario, production in 2050 could amount to about two-thirds of the current level, and in a low scenario, it could drop to about five per cent.

The Barents Sea is the standout

The High North represents the largest remaining resource potential on the NCS, and large parts of the Barents Sea have hardly been explored.

At the same time, limited gas export capacity is a challenge. Analyses show that greater capacity could make it possible to produce the resources up to 20–30 years earlier than the current capacity would allow.

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate at Arendalsuka

As mentioned, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate will be presenting a few perspectives from the Report during Arendalsuka. The topics include the resource base, future production, the Barents Sea, energy security and value creation on the NCS. This is where you'll find us: (All events in Norwegian only)

• 11 August at 11:00–11:45: Ligger fremtiden i Barentshavet? (Is the Barents Sea the future?) – Organiser: Offshore Norge. Location: Madam Reiersen. Kjersti Dahle, Director of Offshore New Ventures, representing the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
• 12 August at 11:00–11:45: Er Norge Europas energigarantist? (Norway: Europe’s energy bank?) – Organiser: Offshore Norge. Location: Madam Reiersen. Torgeir Stordal, Director general, representing the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
• 12 August at 12:00–13:00: Uendelig sug etter olje og gass? (Unquenchable demand for oil and gas?) – Organiser: Stavanger Chamber of Commerce and The Energy Capital. Location: Rygerelektra. Kjersti Dahle, Director of Offshore New Ventures, representing the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
• 12 August at 13:00–14:00: Hva er sokkelen verdt og hvem merker når det stilner? (What is the shelf worth and who will notice when it winds down?) – Organiser: OKEA, MS Brisen. Torgeir Stordal, Director general, introductory speaker from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.
• 12 August at 15:00–16:00: 60 år med leting og verdiskaping: Hva vet vi om ressursene som er igjen på norsk sokkel? (60 years of exploration and value creation: What do we know about the remaining resources on the NCS?) – Organiser: Stavanger Chamber of Commerce, the Norwegian Offshore Directorate, Vår Energi, Aker BP, Equinor and IKM. Location: Rygerelektra. Kjersti Dahle, Director of Offshore New Ventures, representing the Norwegian Offshore Directorate.